NATO's Plan If Russia Attacks Tomorrow（原声文稿）

There are new American intelligence reports, and they are deeply worrying.

They suggest that Russia might actively be preparing for a direct confrontation with NATO.

A Russian attack could target the Baltics, aiming to seize a chunk of territory within a matter of days. That would trigger Article 5.

An attack on one is considered an attack on all, which would pull most of Europe into the conflict as well as the US.

For NATO, it would mean a race to the east.

Hundreds of thousands of troops would need to reach the front as quickly as possible.

How could Russia stop them while trying to overwhelm its targets? And how would the Baltics fight back?

This is how it could all play out.

The following scenario is fictional.

We can't know for sure where and if a direct Russian attack on NATO might actually happen.

For this video, we rely on war games, NATO assessments and expert analyses. As always, you can find all our sources in the description.

This is SHAPE, NATO's military headquarters located in Belgium.

Inside sits the head of all NATO forces, the Supreme Allied Commander Europe, or SAKUR.

A few hours ago, the North Atlantic Council officially invoked Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty.

Just before dawn, Russian forces crossed the border into Estonia and Latvia, marching on Tallinn and Riga. Swarms of drones support their advance.

– additional forces invaded Lithuania through Belarus, closing in on Vilnius. The Baltic states are now in a battle against time.

They need to hold off the Russian advances long enough until NATO allies will arrive.

With each passing day, Russia is more likely to gain control over their territories, which could be extremely difficult to reverse.

This is called a fair accompli, and could be core to the Russian strategy as laid out in this war game by Rand.

To slow down any potential invasion, the Baltic countries are heavily fortifying their borders, for example with these anti -tank dragon teeth.

All three countries have withdrawn from the 1997 Ottawa Treaty which tries to eliminate anti -personnel landmines. So in this scenario, all three borders are heavily mined.

Lithuania is working on a complex network of infrared cameras and acoustic sensors all across the border, modeled after the Ukrainian sky fortress.

The goal is to know exactly whenever any type of threat is entering the country to be able to respond quickly.

The country is also recreating swamps and forests along the border to force enemy troops into clear choke points. All to buy time. NATO has to move.

US intelligence was crucial in preparing Ukraine for the full -scale Russian invasion in 2022.

In this scenario, NATO had at least some intel and began to prepare ahead of the actual invasion.

NATO has more than 3 .6 million active military personnel overall, almost 3 times as many as Russia. Russia, most are American, Turkish and French.

These are all of NATO's bases in Europe.

The exact figures are classified, but for an operation like this it's estimated that the Sakur will move up to 800 ,000 soldiers across the entirety of mainland Europe.

Many of them will come from the US.

Around 86 ,000 American soldiers are already stationed across the continent.

When the Sakur was informed about Russia's imminent attack, he decided to bring in additional troops from overseas.

But currently, moving hundreds of thousands of NATO troops from Europe's Atlantic coast to its eastern flank would take up to 45 days. NATO strategists aim to reduce it to less than 10.

This occur once to bolster NATO forces in Europe with tanks from Texas and troops from Georgia.

The Port of Beaumont is one of America's most important military ports, both domestically and globally.

Three major rail lines connected to military bases and logistics hubs across the US.

Yes, Interstate 10 connects the port to major cities like Houston, San Antonio, and New Orleans.

Moored here is the MV Leroy A. Mendonka.

Until 2022, it was the US Navy's largest cargo ship. Since then, it's been part of the reserve.

Right now, soldiers are loading various vehicles into its fold.

Once loaded, the Mendonka enters the Gulf of Mexico. From here, it will cross the Atlantic bound for Europe.

Time is of the essence, and there's no shortage of potential threats.

Russia operates one of the world's largest submarine fleets with an estimated 64 active vessels.

Most of these subs patrol the barren sea, but they're also frequently sent here, to the geogap, a stretch of ocean between Greenland, Iceland and the UK.

Some are capable of sabotaging undersea infrastructure like data cables.

Others are built to attack enemy ships. Russia also uses naval mines. dense.

Some detonate on contact, others when they detect sound or pressure waves from a nearby vessel. They can take out individual ships or even block entire sea routes. They are especially dangerous and narrow waterways.

The Mandankas' destination is in the North Sea, which is surrounded entirely by NATO member states.

While that might act as a deterrent, Russia could still attack here. It doesn't, not today anyway.

The Mandankas almost to rob them in the Netherlands, but it's still way too early for the captain to relax.

You have to assume that the Russians would have done something to destroy or disrupt those ports, whether with cyber or with missiles.

We sat down with him for an exclusive interview. He's a US Army Lieutenant General retired.

My last position in the army was as commander of the U .S. Army in Europe from 2014 to 2017.

I was responsible for all U .S. land forces in Europe.

Port workers are busy guiding ships into the harbor. Suddenly, the entire system goes down.

A port operator radios the captain of the Mandanka. He doesn't know when the port will be operational again. The ship has to divert.

The nearest alternatives include Antwerp and Zeebroek, but the captain fears they could soon be hit by cyber attacks too.

Fortunately, the US military is closely familiar with European ports.

What we've done over the years is use as many different ports as possible so that we are familiar with each port.

In Poland we've practiced there, we've practiced in Italy and Slovenia and Greece and also in France.

The Mandanka's captain decides to change course to Bremerhaven, Germany.

If all goes well, the troops will reach mainland Europe just a few days behind schedule.

Meanwhile, back in the US, a second group is preparing their trip.

The Sakur has ordered American soldiers stationed at Fort Steward, Georgia, to fly to Germany.

Once they arrive, some will escort the tanks arriving aboard the Mandanka to the eastern flank.

The rest will fly directly to the front. The plane itself isn't part of the Air Force regular fleet.

It is an ordinary passenger jet capable of carrying up to 400 people.

The US has special agreements with commercial airlines allowing it to move large numbers of troops quickly without owning commercial aircraft itself.

By now, the plane has left Georgia and reached cruising altitude.

Meanwhile, over the Baltics, fighter jets are already fighting for air superiority.

These are Sukhoi Su -57s, the most advanced fighter jets in the Russian Air Force.

At an airfield in Germany, NATO pilots sprint to their jets.

Both of them Eurofighter Typhoons.

NATO protocols demand they be airborne within 15 minutes.

The Eurofighter Typhoon is one of the world's most advanced combat aircraft.

Its predecessor was developed in the 1980s and the Typhoon has been continuously upgraded ever since.

It can fly at Mach 2 and operate at a maximum altitude of around 16 ,700 meters.

fighters. From Germany, a typhoon can reach NATO's eastern flank in about an hour.

Together, the member states operate at least 400 of them.

But far below the fighter jets, another battle is unfolding. Fought with drones. They are cheap and dangerous.

Ukraine successfully torpedoes Russia's supply lines with them and takes out their oil refineries.

In the Middle East, Iran's drones have posed a massive challenge for the US military.

The missiles to take them out are often vastly more expensive than the drone itself.

In the present day, Russia is already testing Europe's readiness.

An attack on Ukrainian military planes in Germany was stopped last minute.

The country's drone defenses regularly fall short, deeply worrying as so much of NATO's supply lines and infrastructure run through here.

Russia produces its drones on a massive scale, an estimated 400 a day.

Its arsenal contains a vast fleet, all of them built for different purposes.

Take this one, the Orlan -10, one of its most important reconnaissance drones. It can stay in the air for almost 10 hours.

It uses cameras and other sensors to locate troops, vehicles, and air defense systems. The information it collects can be used to guide missiles or attack drones. Like these Gurans.

The Guran -2 is Russia's version of the Iranian Shahad -136 drone. It's designed for long -range attacks.

It can carry a warhead of up to 90 kilograms and strike targets more than 1 ,000 km away. It just flies into them and detonates on impact. Like so.

Russia's military has established an enormous new branch dedicated entirely to unmanned systems.

Defending against drone attacks has become a major priority for NATO.

At the same time, the Baltic countries are investing heavily to fight back with their own drones.

In this Atlantic long read, one Lithuanian colonel estimates they'd inflict 80 -90 % of Russian casualties with cheap FPV drones.

Ultimately, it's impossible to predict how well -nada would fare against Russian drone warfare. Currently, many experts fear Europe isn't ready.

Back to the American troops landing in Bremenhaven.

The port is connected to the Trans -European Transport Network, a collection of roads, railways, waterways and airports.

At its heart are nine major transport corridors stretching across the continent.

The Scandinavian Mediterranean Corridor, the Mediterranean Corridor, and crucially the North Sea Baltic Corridor. It connects the North Sea ports to Germany, Poland and the Baltics.

Troops and gear will make their way along this corridor to the east by rail.

They need to cross Germany. But large parts of the country's rail network are in decay.

Rail lines, bridges and signal boxes are outdated.

The technology used to control and monitor rail traffic is in dire need of modernization.

Once a source of pride, Germany's trains are now famously unreliable.

It's hard to predict just how much this antiquated infrastructure would jeopardize NATO's ability to get east. But it's hard to imagine transport will go smoothly.

A horrific thought given how for Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia every day matters.

And there are bigger obstacles.

Well, actually one extremely small one of 8 .5 cm.

Across most of Europe railway tracks use a standard gauge.

But the Baltics by and large still use a wider Soviet -era gauge.

The Baltics have been working hard to adapt their tracks to the European standard.

Rail Baltic has a planned high -speed railway between Warsaw and Helsinki. It was supposed to be completed by 2026.

The current target is 2030. Some officials think it might be delayed until 2040. Of course, Russia could also try to sabotage transport routes directly.

What we also know is that the Russians conduct sabotage against infrastructure.

And obviously, because rail is so important for us, That would always be something we'd be concerned about. This train has just left Hamburg.

A few kilometers ahead, a cast of shadowy figures scurry hastily across the tracks.

Thermal cameras and acoustic sensors pick up their movements, but the operators at HQ fail to respond in time.

The individuals force their way into a building that houses the railway signalling and control systems. They open one of the control cabinets, douse it with gasoline, and set it on fire.

The military train is forced to stop. It's not allowed to continue until the signals are back up and running.

Experts have repeatedly argued that Germany's railway network isn't adequately protected.

In countries like Norway or the UK, railway lines are often completely fenced off.

In France, critical sections of track are protected by double fencing.

So far, Germany has relied primarily on drones and thermal cameras.

The national railway company claims that it's simply impossible to consistently monitor all of such an extensive rail network. But this is just the beginning.

All NATO troops moving into the Baltics have to pass through the Suvalki corridor, a thin stretch of territory along the Polish -Lithuanian border.

At its narrowest point, the corridor is just 65 kilometers wide.

To its west is Kaliningrad, a heavily militarized Russian exclave.

To the east is Belarus, Moscow's closest military ally.

Missiles, drones or artillery from both sides could make roads and railways impossible to use, turning the corridor into a gauntlet of fire.

With the corridor cut off, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania would only be reachable by sea or air, severely hindering NATO's ability to deliver reinforcements to the front.

The Suvalki corridor would likely be one of the most consequential pressure points on NATO's eastern flank.

As a result, the Baltic Sea would become strategically even more important.

And this island would likely play a crucial role.

Gotland is owned by Sweden, a NATO member since 2024.

It could serve as an essentially unsinkable aircraft carrier for the Alliance.

Short -range Russian drones can't reach it, but NATO fighter jets could easily take off from there to attack Russian supply lines or troops.

Sweden's defence chief thinks the island could be made ready for offensive operations within five days.

How the conflict would play out from here is extremely hard to predict.

Luckily, our scenario is fiction.

But for years now, Russia has been waging a hybrid war against Europe, with assassination plots, cyber attacks, sabotage and drones.

Since the war in Ukraine began, military spending has risen across Europe, especially in Germany, which allocates around 25 billion euros to supporting Ukraine.

Among individual countries, only the US spends more.

Germany's former Chancellor Olaf Scholz has called this a watershed moment.

Since the end of the Cold War, Germany has spent significantly less on defence. Now, it's trying to catch up. Fast.

In our scenario, the US showed unwavering support for Europe. In reality, that's far from guaranteed.

Even a limited attack could test NATO's resolve.

If some members hesitated to defend others or disagreed on a response, it could divide the alliance.

Trump has repeatedly questioned NATO and America's commitment to some of its allies.

He has also publicly doubted whether Putin would actually dare to attack NATO territory in the first place.

And we would have always been there for them, but now based on their actions, I guess we don't have to be, do we? For Europe, the consequences of a U .S. withdrawal would be enormous.

It would dramatically weaken the alliance, but it could also hurt the United States itself.

I think even this administration knows that we depend on Europe.

Europe is where all of our best and most reliable allies are, as well as Canada and Australia.

It's also where we have our biggest trading partner, Europe as a whole, is the biggest trading block for the United States.

So it's in the interest of the United States that Europe is prosperous, which means it has to be stable and secure.

I don't think they're ever going to turn the back on Europe because it's in our interest that we maintain these relationships.

NATO allies have already begun preparing for a potential American withdrawal.

Whether or not that happens, Europe needs to up its defenses.

The continent is incredibly lucky that Ukraine has proven so extraordinarily resilient, even though it hasn't always received all the support it requested and so desperately needed to fight back.

By holding off Russia's forces, Ukraine is not just defending itself. It is also buying the rest of Europe precious time to prepare.